What Are the Odds? A List of Long-Shot Odds in Texas Holdem
The development of probability theory in the late s was attributed to gambling; when playing a game with high stakes, players wanted to know what the chance of winning would be. Hands in a higher-ranking category always rank higher than hands in a lower-ranking category. My question is, what is the probability of any hand being a bad beat hand, assuming all players stay until the end? The table does not extend to include five-card hands with at least one pair. Being dealt a pair and flopping a set.
Running into Aces with Kings
The frequencies given are exact; the probabilities and odds are approximate. As can be seen from the table, just over half the time a player gets a hand that has no pairs, three- or four-of-a-kinds.
If aces are not low, simply rotate the hand descriptions so that 6-high replaces 5-high for the best hand and ace-high replaces king-high as the worst hand. In some variants of poker a player uses the best five-card low hand selected from seven cards. The table does not extend to include five-card hands with at least one pair.
Its "Total" represents Bluffing frequency can affect the probability of an opponent calling a bet or folding. From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia. This article has multiple issues. Please help improve it or discuss these issues on the talk page. Learn how and when to remove these template messages. This article possibly contains original research. Please improve it by verifying the claims made and adding inline citations. Statements consisting only of original research should be removed.
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Please help improve it by rewriting it in an encyclopedic style. Sports and games portal. Retrieved December 7, Index of poker articles Outline of poker. The following table shows the probability for 1 to 8 higher ranks and 2 to 10 players, including yourself. In the case of your example of 4 higher ranks and 9 total players, the probability is The way I calculated these probabilities assumed independence between hands, which is not a correct assumption, but the results should be a close estimate.
Asking this for my own personal knowledge. I was dealt pocket aces. I got the royal flush on the river. I was wondering what the odds are of making the royal flush on the river with aces to start?
This would be the two suits in your pocket aces and the 46 possibilities for the extra card. If the flop comes up three of the same suit and I do not have a suit that matches the flop, and there are ten players left at the table, what is the probability of someone having a flush? So the probability of at least one player having a flush is This is just a quick estimate.
If I did a random simulation I think the probability would be just a little bit higher, because of the dependence between hands. Wizard, I have been recently trying to calculate the probability of getting a flush in Texas Hold 'Em if dealt two suited hole cards? My answer keeps on coming out to be 5. Add this all up and you get 0.
That is, five cards on the board where no pair exists, no flush is possible and no straight is possible. Combin 4,2 is the number of ways to choose two suits out of four for the suits represented twice. Combin 5,2 for the number of ways to choose two ranks out of five for the first suit of two cards. Combin 5,2 is the number of ways to choose two ranks out of five for that suit of two cards. The number of these combinations in which no three ranks are within a span of 5 is There is no easy formula for this one.
I had to cycle through every combination. They have a Bad Beat Jackpot, which is now quads or better being beat. Both players have to play both hole cards, and there must be four players dealt cards. My question is, what is the probability of any hand being a bad beat hand, assuming all players stay until the end?
My new Bad Beat Jackpot section shows the probability of this kind of bad beat in a player game to be 0. In this case, the player is stuck with bad odds on the Ante and Blind. However, his odds are favorable on the Play. That value would be even less with a smaller raise. I have a simple question about the odds of this occurring. ESPN and others quoted it as 1 in approximately 2.
It appears to me that they simply took the published odds of quads occurring, and multiplied them by the odds of a royal flush occurring. Is this the correct method of calculation? I disagree with the 1 in 2. As you said, they seemed to calculate the probabilities independently for each player, for just the case where both players use both hole cards, and multiplied.
Using this method I get a probability of 0. Maybe the one in 2. They also evidently forgot to multiply the probability by 2, for reasons I explain later. One player has two to a royal flush, the other has two aces, and the board contains the other two aces, the other two cards to the royal, and any other card. In most poker rooms, to qualify for a bad-beat jackpot, both winning and losing player must make use of both hole cards.
This was also the type of bad beat in the video; in fact, these were the exact cards. One player has two to a royal flush T-K , the other has one ace and a "blank" card, and the board contains the other three aces and the other two cards to the royal.
One player has one to a royal flush T-K and a blank card, the other has two aces, and the board contains the other two aces and the other three cards to the royal flush. The following table shows the number of combinations for each case for both players and the board. The lower right cell shows the total number of combinations is 16, However, we could reverse the cards of the two players, and still have a bad beat.
So, we should multiply the number of combinations by 2. The probability of just a case 1 bad beat is 1 in million. The simple reason the odds are not as long as reported in that video is that the two hands overlap, with the shared ace. In other words, the two events are positively correlated. For example, in video poker if you are initially dealt a four of a kind and you discard them all, it will reappear as a winner, since the central computer was programmed for your machine to get a four of a kind.
Therefore, any strategy is useless. Regardless of what cards the player keeps, he can not avoid his fate. If the player tries to deliberately avoid his fate, the game will make use of a guardian angel feature to correct the player's mistake. I completely agree with the author that such games should warn the player that they are not playing real video poker, and the pay table is a meaningless measure of the player's actual odds. It also also be noted these kinds of fake video poker machines are not confined to New York.
Hello, I am a seventh grader from Hawaii. I am doing a science fair project on poker and shuffling. I was hoping you could answer a few questions that would help me with my project:. How did you come up with the percentages found in the charts? If you used a computer program, how did you develop it and how long did it take? An additional category, five of a kind, is introduced when using one or more wild cards.
The fewer hands a category contains, the higher its rank. It ranks above a straight flush but is only possible when using one or more wild cards, as there are only four cards of each rank in a standard card deck.
Each five of a kind is ranked by the rank of its quintuplet. Under high rules, an ace can rank either high e. There are 40 possible straight flush hands and 10 distinct ranks of straight flush under high rules when using a standard card deck. It ranks below a straight flush and above a full house. There are possible four of a kind hands and distinct ranks of four of a kind when using a standard card deck. There are 3, possible full house hands and distinct ranks of full house when using a standard card deck.
There are 5, possible flush hands and 1, distinct ranks of flush under high rules when using a standard card deck. It ranks below a flush and above three of a kind.
There are 10, possible straight hands and 10 distinct ranks of straight under high rules when using a standard card deck. It ranks below a straight and above two pair. There are 54, possible three of a kind hands and distinct ranks of three of a kind when using a standard card deck. In community card games, such as Texas hold 'em, three of a kind is called a set only when it comprises a pocket pair and a third card on the board.
There are , possible two pair hands and distinct ranks of two pair when using a standard card deck. It ranks below two pair and above high card. There are 1,, possible one pair hands and 2, distinct ranks of one pair when using a standard card deck. There are 1,, possible high cards hands and 1, distinct ranks of high card hand under high rules when using a standard card deck. From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia.