The Difference Between Equity and Expected Value (EV)

Many people underestimate how much you need to play to have a reasonably accurate understanding of your winrate. These are the reasons why poker players play very few hands from Early positions and a lot more from Late position not as extreme when the game is shorthanded. If you started playing online at the age of 18 and have been playing 4 tables 10 hours per day a couple of years — at at least double the pace of a live game you will actually gather a lot of experience fast. In this article I will explain the difference between equity and EV and show you how they are used in poker. The following is based on quite extensive research on various resources online including among others these:. A critical skill in poker is being able to adjust to your opponents.

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The connection between equity and expected value.

These tools are aimed mostly toward no limit Texas Hold'em players. If you have any problems or questions about these Texas Hold em tools , please let me know. Hope you enjoy them! These odds charts include odds tables based on the number of outs in a hand in both ratio and percentage form. There are also a few extra odds charts for some of the more common situations you might find yourself in whilst at the Texas Hold'em tables.

A free odds calculator for calculating the odds of winning between two all-in hands. With this calculator you can find out the odds of any two hands winning before the flop, on the flop or on the turn.

If you have a spare 5 minutes, PokerStove is a better downloadable version of an odds calculator. It's perfectly free too. Just enter the size of your bankroll and the calculator will tell you which limits you should be playing at so that you can safely win money without fear of going broke.

There is a lot of poker software out there for you to choose from, so make sure you are in the know before you spend your money. Fancy some free and unique tools from ThePokerBank? They are all very simple, but they work well and I'm sure many of you will find them useful. Through skill, luck or aggression? Every year a vast amount of people all around the globe files reports on UFO encounters.

But have we yet seen any verified encounters? Yes, there are a couple of reports and photographs that seem strange and difficult to explain, but almost all of them are explainable and a lot of them are bluffs. So do I believe online poker is rigged? Most importantly I believe that the lack of evidence is revealing. Interesting is also that most of the players who so strongly believe poker is rigged are casual players who might not even have played 10 thousand hands in their lifetime.

But how you can draw conclusions from such a small sample? How about cheating in online poker then? That is a different matter, more on that in later posts….

My 50 cents on the raging debate on the matter of skills in live poker games versus online games. The oldtimers often see online players as inexperienced and naive. The new breed of online players often see the oldtimers as, well you guessed it, old. In general I believe that the good online players are better at analysing the game and have a more thorough understanding of the mathematics of poker. On the matter of experience I actually think that it is not uncommon that a 23 year old online poker wiz kid has as much poker under his belt as a 60 year old vet.

If you started playing online at the age of 18 and have been playing 4 tables 10 hours per day a couple of years — at at least double the pace of a live game you will actually gather a lot of experience fast. I actually even believe many of the oldtimers underestimate the skill of reading tells themselves. The reason I think they underestimate the skill is that all of us underestimate the power of the subconscious.

There are so many things going on under the surface that never reaches the conscious parts of the brain. The Power of Thinking Without Thinking about intuition not a poker book. I would agree that those kind of reads are fairly rare. It is just a feeling. In Blink there is an example of the examination of a supposedly old greek statue. All the physical testing shows that it should be the real deal. But the experts were united, something was wrong with it.

After a while it turned out, if I remember correctly, that it was something with the proportions that were slightly off. And after a while they were able to prove it physically also. Another reason I believe intuition and tells are truly important part of the great live players game is that when you read most of the really good live players analysis of hands they are not too impressive.

Most of them are doing decent or good analysis. But most other great live players are not doing mindblowing poker analysis. I still think most of them are not just lucky, they are great players. If I remember correctly he has said that he has never had a winning month online!

And his analysis and plays sometimes feels kind of weird. I believe he is a bad online player but a great live player. He seems to have excellent feel for when he can get away with a crazy bluff and he seems capable of manipulating people to do what he want. But he is not able to do that online, so he is loosing there.

So why then are online players better at analysis and mathematics? Because of the use of online tools like Pokertracker and Pokerstove. This is really interesting! Drawpoker has been proven to have a skill value of 0,45 in Dutch study! So what on earth does that mean? It has been analysed statistically by going through loads of hands. A simplified version of Drawpoker was calculated according to a certain formula to be on the level 0, This can be compared with Blackjack on level 0, The needed level to be considered a skillgame according to the Dutch court was 0,20, so no problem for Drawpoker.

This is a recap of an article i Aftonbladet sorry — in Swedish , I have not been able to find the study unfortunately. Please share if you find it. But when opponents are playing good poker, at full ring table with average stack depth big blinds there is only one style that is truly successful and that is Tight Aggressive. It took me a long while years and quite a bit of money to figure this out. I hope you will not make the same mistake.

Because it is more fun to be splashing money around and outplay your opponents and put fear into their hearts than sitting around waiting for that good hand, right? Some of you might argue that this might be true for cash games, but there is no way this is true for tournaments? Well, in a way you are right.

But you are missing one thing. I mentioned that this is true when opponents are playing good poker. And you might also be missing the stack sizes, which are an important factor. So what do I mean, are tournament players not playing good poker? Well, many of them are. Especially in live tournaments. But that is not how you should play if you want to play good poker. And it is not the way most players are playing in online cash games or early stages of tournaments.

That could have been the case. So I challenge you! Having position on someone means that you act after them. Early Position means that you are sitting close to the blinds and will act early in the hand, especially preflop, when the blinds are acting last. The benefit with having position on someone is that they will act before you, so when it is your turn you will have gained information. And information is money in poker. If you are first to act at a Full Ring table you will have 8 or 9 people to act after you.

It is natural that you need a very strong hand to be able to open the pot. Furthermore, it is also likely that someone with a stronger hand will get involved AND have position on you throughout the hand. AND you know you will have position throughout the hand. These are the reasons why poker players play very few hands from Early positions and a lot more from Late position not as extreme when the game is shorthanded.

Think about this the next time you consider opening a decent, but not great hand UTG in a Full Ring game next time. Even if you believe you have a skill advantage over your opponents make sure you have enough games at the level under your belt to be sure of this you might well be playing a hand with a card disadvantage and a positional disadvantage. Have a clear reason for playing the hand if you do, for example that table is folding much too often, or for deception occasionally or since you are much stronger than the opponents.

An example of the value of position preflop is you hold a fairly strong hand in late position. On the other hand, if you had been UTG you would have open raised with this hand — without any information about how your opponents like their hands. The difference between acting before or after you opponent can often mean as much as saving a bet when you have the worst hand and winning an extra bet when you have the better hand. This may not sound like much, but it is.

Sometimes the last bet is on the river, in a big pot. In general you can play the same way in the early stages of a Tournament as you do in a Cash game with the following considerations:. Some people say you should take every chance to collect money at early stages, because otherwise you will have too small chance to win. This is not true. With a correct strategy for opening up your game when the blinds increase you will still have good chances of winning.

If skill advantage is ignored optimal strategy in a tournament is identical to a cash game when far from the money. In a Sit and Go you need to play a little bit tighter. The reason for this is that the so called Bubble effect is noticeable from the very start of a Sit and Go it is normally negligible in a large MTT Multi Table Tournament. The Bubble is what it is called when the tournament is at a stage so that it is getting close to the money payouts. Usually many inexperienced players tighten up a lot at this stage because they really want something to show for their efforts.

This can be taken advantage of by skilled opponents by raising with more hands and increased aggression. Due to something called Bubble Factor correct strategy is in general to raise when first in with more hands, but avoid confrontations more than normally call or reraise with fewer hands. The Bubble Factor helps you decide exactly how to play an optimal strategy at any time in a Tournament or a Sit and Go.

The ICM is a way to convert tournament chips into real money. This is somewhat complicated but very important. The more chips a player has, the less each chip is worth. Try it for free for 30 days and make up your mind late. Bubble Factor Kill Everyone: A critical skill in poker is being able to adjust to your opponents.

You want to do this to maximize your earnings from their mistakes and minimize your own mistakes that they can take advantage of. In general, if a table is playing tighter than normal, you should play looser. If a table is playing looser than normal you should play tighter. You get a fairly good idea for what average play is by the Preflop Strategy.

This is pretty average except on Microstakes which are much looser most of the time. On top of this you might play looser than normal if you have a high skill edge against your competitors and you might play tighter than normal if your opponents are more skilled than you but normally select a different table. Many poker players are overdoing these adjustments. Be careful when you stray from the default strategy since it can make you very exploitable when someone notices this.

This may be a reasonable starting point at a cash game table. However, in a tournament people can sometimes become so tight when it is getting close to the money so you can play more or less every hand.

These situations will mostly require experience, feel for the table dynamics and knowledge about the bubble factors and how that influences the game. If someone has 3-bet you four times in the last 20 minutes you will be tempted to fight back next time, right? This goes for most people. Exactly how to adjust to game flow, table dynamics, mental game etc is something that mainly must be learned with experience.

Definition of equity and expected value.